Hegseth, What to Expect.

Amply justified critiques of Pete Hegseth and the serial reasons why he should not be entrusted with the Department of Defense have had no effect on Trump’s Amen Chorus in the U.S. Senate. For those who need a comprehensive guide to Hegseth’s dramatic lack of qualifications, I commend Elizabeth Warren’s Letter to Mr Pete Hegseth, released prior to his confirmation hearing. However, now that he is installed in office, it is time to assess what lies ahead. Winslow Wheeler, who has been observing the crimes and follies of our national security complex from the vantage points of senior staff positions in the U.S. Senate, the Government Accountability Office, and national security-focussed think tanks for longer than Hegseth has been alive, sent me this brief summary. It is not reassuring. I have appended my own italicized comments to Wheeler’s

From the moment he is confirmed , Hegseth will lose his protection from Trump and his base. Trump will now expect Hegseth to be the protector, but much more importantly Hegseth will be on his own (along with his immediate staff) to deal with the public and private elements of being SecDef. Specifically,

• Political bromides ("anonymous smear," warrior rhetoric) will not suffice to respond to unwanted questions from the press and in hearings. A press asking unwanted questions would be a wonderful thing. Blinken’s State Department took to physically ejecting unwanted questioners, setting a precedent that will surely inspire future administrations.

• For the canned, superficial questions he will get in hearings, he will need a minimal command of the facts on an ocean of subjects to avoid self-embarrassment. His staff will undoubtedly be able to supply him with the requisite bromides, half truths, and total untruths that have served his predeccessors so well.

• He will gain a reputation inside the Pentagon for either being an empty suit as people like me expect, or he will win a reputation for actually knowing what is going on and in command of what it takes to run the building. The latter outcome is entirely unlikely, given the incompetence he has displayed in erswhile executive positions, I.E. the veterans groups he ran into the ground.

• he will either piss of Members of Congress for being unhelpful with their earmark (pork) demands or as a "problem solver" for satisfying those and other myriad demands; the same thing goes for dealing with the defense corporations and especially Silicon Valley and the Brahmins there who think they know how to run the Pentagon and acquisition. He will give them whatever they demand. Thus Congress will be happy.

• In short he will emerge as someone who is in command (for better or worse) like Gates or a pushover and weak reed like Hagel or Cohen. Which do we think is more likely, really?

None of this has anything to do with his problematic history vis-a-vis women (especially personally) and drinking. If either of those issues erupts de novo, those who supported him in the Senate (i.e. All but two Republicans) will string him up to twist slowly in the wind. Maybe. But never underestimate the power of coverup. After all, we have just had a senile President for the better part of four years and everyone pretended not to notice.

Worse yet, he could end up like Rumsfeld and help to foist historic disasters driven by the agenda of others. He may think, like Rumsfeld, that the way to escape ignominy as an ineffectual manager is to be a driver of such a foisted disaster.

That is entirely possible. Let’s hope Trump doesn’t forget that wars tend to become politically unpopular.