Is Crimea Russia?
Biden says Ukrainian missiles can't hit Russia. Depends on where you think it is.
On May 27 I reported that the Ukrainians were lobbying hard for the 190 mile-range MGM-140 missile, which would give them the tempting capability of firing at Russian targets well beyond Ukrainian borders, an ominous development given that the Russians would almost certainly retaliate against targets outside Ukraine, such as Poland.
Biden, according to press reports, has now decided that the temptation would prove too much for the Ukrainians, so they will instead get shorter range M30s or 31s, also fired from multiple launch systems, with a range of up to 43 miles. “We are not going to send to Ukraine rocket systems that can strike into Russia,” Biden assured reporters on May 30, seeking to quiet fears of imminent escalation.
Er, Crimea?
But that leaves open a question that deserves more urgent attention: Is Crimea part of Russia, or not? Ukraine and the U.S. say it is not. Russia most emphatically says it is. So what happens if the Ukrainians fire some of their new missiles at the Russian air bases, well withing range, in northern Crimea? Just one of the many questions no one, at least in the upper tiers of the Pentagon or White House, seems to have bothered to ponder.
Is Ukraine Running Out of Troops?
Meanwhile, amid the lucrative (to Americans) rush to pour ill-assorted weapons systems into Ukraine, little attention is being paid to a more serious Ukrainian deficiency: a very high casualty rate and a growing shortage of troops. In a highly instructive piece in the May 26 Washington Post, that ran contrary to the official Ukrainian propaganda line dutifully echoed in most mainstream reporting, Sudarsan Raghavan described the sufferings of a unit on the eastern front, a 120-man company shredded to just fifty four thanks to deaths, injuries and desertions. They complained of being ill-supplied and poorly commanded. Nor were they unique. A nearby unit had posted a video saying they would no longer fight because they had no proper weapons, rear support, or military leadership. Rumors circulating in the Pentagon suggest that Ukrainian casualties, contrary to public reporting, may be running at twice the Russian level.
Hope Springs Eternal
Despite such danger signals, I am told that the belief that "the Ukrainians can win this thing" still prevails in the U.S. military command.
Regardless whether Crimea is part of "Russia" or not, plenty of Russia is well within rocket range and the idea that Ukraine will not attack Russian territory is a joke, and the Biden Administration is well aware that Ukrainian promises are but a figleaf.
The entire point of the exercise is to get Russia to escalate, and therefore provide an excuse to keep on doubling down, even as the US continues to fight to the last Ukrainian.
so US (and Nato) started off by giving Ukraine useless Javelins.
Then after 2 months they promised artillery which isn't arriving.
And now they are discussing, 3 months in, long distance artillery.
One has to assume the don't much care about Ukraine winning.
Meanwhile the story is that Ukraine started great, Russia badly, and every piece of news has been good for Ukraine (or scandalous about Russia) and wildly exaggerating the importance of Nato assistance. And yet Russia have this thing tied up clearly (and to those who recognise Army, navy, air defence and any mobility was all lost to Ukraine by end Feb this has never been of any surprise).
The only way that this makes sense is that Nato/US wants Ukraine to fight gloriously to the last Ukrainian. The promised assistance, the fake success, is all about persuading Zelensky never to negotiate a defeat, and to make the west appear less callous as they condemn more and more territorial units to the front line and death. (This is quite evil).
My guess is that Ukrainian casualties are running a 5X the Russian level. Should the fighting continue and they withdraw to regions which are not traditionally pro-Russia it will actually get far worse for them. They won't be able to shelter amongst the civilians as easily. Perhaps Russia will stop being as concerned about collateral.
In other words your US Military sources are being deliberately lied to (the Ukraine is winning conspiracy is far to big to be a misunderstanding). And I doubt there is any intention for Ukraine to get long distance artillery.