Our Real National Security Budget

$2 Trillion, Here We Come.

The Biden Administration has just published its proposed budget, generating copious commentary, much of it displaying a commensurate degree of misunderstanding, especially regarding our gargantuan national security spending. To get at the truth of the matter, I consulted my friend Winslow Wheeler, who has been observing the insalubrious intricacies of the budget process over the past fifty years as a senior aide to Senators from both parties as well as a senior analyst for the General Accounting Office and directing the Center for Defense Information.

The defense budget has just been posted by the administration is being described as approaching a trillion dollars. Is that accurate?  :

No. It's actually a lot more than that. In fact it's beginning to inch up on $2 trillion. 

How so?

The problem is that when most people look at the defense budget, they don't count everything that we spend even for the Pentagon. But in addition to that, there are hundreds of billions of dollars outside of the Pentagon's budget that we spend for national security. Things like the nuclear weapons activities in the Department of Energy; that’s $37 billion; $26 billion for retired military pensions and healthcare and $12 billion for the Selective Service, the National Defense Stockpile, and a strange and suspicious looking category for the international activities of the FBI in something called “Defense Related Activities.”

Do we have any idea what that last one is for?

It has always been classified. In the 50 years I've been watching the defense budget, it's never been explained other than some occasional hints. One year they admitted to a lot of money being spent by the FBI in, wait for it, Taiwan, and so it's very unclear exactly what this is, but it's always counted as part of so-called defense related activities.  

The expenses that I have just been describing come to $970 billion, but that leaves out a lot.. Add in about $800 billion for the Department of Veterans Affairs, the State Department and its associated agencies, the Department of Homeland Security. And we know now from our Republican friends that border protection is a dire national security issue. Add all that together. Then you can calculate the share for the interest on the debt that we pay each year. All those activities I've just described come to 21% of all federal spending. Calculating in that percentage as a the amount it contributes to the debt burden gives you $254 billion.. And so you add all of that up together and you get $1.767 trillion.

Jesus Christ.  What about CIA and other intelligence spending?

All the intelligence agencies are in the Pentagon budget except for the intelligence agencies for the State Department, Coast Guard and  the Department of Homeland Security. Those are the few other things that are not in the Pentagon budget that are distributed in the other agencies that I've described.  When they last published the total amount for the intel budget it was over $120 billion, but it’s all embedded in these various agencies.

Since the budget was published, there's been some wailing and lamentation that because of irksome spending restraints, this budget  actually represents a cut or at least restraint on defense spending. What's your view on that?

Well, last yea the budget deal that then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy negotiated with the Democrats for the Pentagon allowed only a 1% increase in defense spending. But because of the screwy way that we actually calculate things, if you put together everything we spent just for the Pentagon without all those other items I mentioned, last year, it looks like we will have spent $968 billion, while for 2025, Biden's requesting $921 billion. So yes, that's a cut. But that doesn't include the supplementals that Biden will request later this year for the Pentagon, for Ukraine, Israel, God knows what, that will get us back into competition with 2024. The reason why 2024 is higher than the Biden request is because it had 60 billion worth of emergency supplementals that Congress is about to approve and that money is counted in my total. But because of the broken accounting rules that we use for the budget, that money's not counted when you calculate the deal that McCarthy made with the Democrats, and that's emergency money that doesn't count on budget cap.

For years we had the Overseas Contingency Operations defense spending, the so called war budget, which was the extra money the military got for actually fighting wars in Afghanistan and elsewhere. Are we getting back to that?

Yes.  The politically-derived budget caps don’t apply to that money.  And it’s a lot more than just for the wars; lots of billions for goodies for everybody added each year there. It's all part of the hocus pocus ways that Congress allows itself to appropriate money so it can pretend that it's using restraint, but actually is exploiting all kinds of loopholes to increase whatever cap or restraint they pretend that they've added to the defense budget.

What's the next budgetary legislative stage that we're going to endure?

:We haven't finished with 2024 yet, because Congress  has gotten into this habit of never passing budgets on time. And it also helps the Speaker of the House and the Majority Leader of the Senate discipline members so they don't get out of the line on things. We do these things called continuing resolutions that keep the money flowing but only at the level approved in the previous year. And we're in that situation for the Defense Department for 2024. Next week or the week after, they're going to resolve that and pick a final total for 2024, which will include most, but probably not all of the emergency supplemental that Biden requested for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and defense industrial base spending. So that number will become final in two or three weeks. We have barely begun on the 2025 consideration in Congress that will take the next three, four months and we'll have another continuing resolution because they won't pass things in time for the beginning of the fiscal year on October 1st, and we'll go through this charade once again. And because this is an election year, it'll be all that more sloppy, painful, and unappealing to observe.

Then when they do it, Chuck Schumer and whoever is the Speaker of the House will pat themselves on the back and say, ‘well, we've done a great job. Who says we can't do anything. We just got the budget finally passed.’ But that will be months late yet again.

Are there items tacked onto the defense bills that have nothing to do with defense? 

Yes. There's two bills. One is the National Defense Authorization Act, which is the bill that goes to the House and Senate Armed Services Committees. That's a policy bill. It doesn't make money actually available to be spent, but it pretends it does. It has lots of numbers in it; it’s a tar baby for all kinds of crazy stuff or politically driven stuff because the legislative process is so broken.  Members don't have an opportunity to do stuff on the floor of the House and Senate and especially in the Senate because the Majority Leader exploits the rules to make amendments impossible. The National Defense Authorization Act is one of those bills where they actually get a chance to do amendments and they do all kinds of crazy stuff, lots of stuff that has absolutely nothing to do with national defense.  Last year they had 600 amendments for that bill.

Whew.

But they don’t really get debated. This is yet another way that the Majority Leader, Chuck Schumer, controls things. If you’re a Senator, you have to supplicate Schumer to get him to accept your amendment. That will then will get into a package that he's blessed and it'll be adopted wholesale by the Senate with perfunctory debate and members giving staff-written speeches about ‘this is a wonderful bill. It includes my important amendment to increase ice block cutting in Minnesota’ and all kinds of other crazy stuff. Every one of these will have been approved by Schumer or his agents as politically acceptable. If you are a dissenter and have a problem with how things are done in the Pentagon or anywhere else, you will not get Schumer's blessing and your amendment will not be added to his package to be dumped into the National Defense Authorization Act, and you'll be out in the cold. We go through essentially the same process with the appropriations bill, which is the one that actually makes the money available to all these agencies. Yet again, Schumer controls the process where if he likes the smell of your amendments and it's okay with the prevailing political dogma that week or that month or for the last decade, it'll get included. And if you have something that that Chuck Schumer doesn't like, your amendment will be out in the cold.

Was it always like this?

When the Senate described itself as the world's greatest deliberative body back in the 1970s and eighties, it would have a process where a bill would come up on the floor in the Senate, and the Senate took great pride in the fact that it had unlimited amendments, and you could offer an amendment on anything you wanted to all of these bills, whether it's the National Defense Authorization Act or the FAA Authorization Act, and there would be a proper debate, and then the Senate would vote and the majority of those senators present in voting would prevail.

Today it's a fundamentally broken process because of the automatic filibuster, which allows the party leaders to totally control things. Unless a Senator can somehow put together sixty votes to override a filibuster, Schumer and McConnell can simply prevent your amendment from even coming to the floor, let alone get debated. It’s also a corrupt process because if you legislate in ways that Chuck Schumer, or whoever is the leader, doesn't like or your idea is a pain in the ass for the Democratic, or Republican, caucus, you will be on the outs.  Furthermore, Schumer, and McConnell control a large portion of the money that you need for your reelection campaign. And if you don't behave yourself, you'll be on the outs, not just on getting your amendment adopted, but you'll be on the outs so far as getting any of his money is concerned. And for the money that he doesn't directly control, he'll be sending the message to the big political donors, ‘don't give anything to Senator So and So. He's not one of us; he’s not a good boy.’  That's the way we do business these days.

Getting back to the defense bill, I saw an item this morning that the Navy is saying they all have to cut back Virginia class submarine production from two to one next year because of their terrible financially straitened circumstances. How do we read that?

There’s two things going on there. One is that the Navy has requested a gigantic ship-building budget, something like $45 billion. The problem is that navy ships are so expensive these days that you can't fit much dirt into that bag. Those submarines are about $3 billion apiece. Aircraft carriers, and we're paying for two more, are about $13 billion apiece. They have a brand new ‘low cost’ frigate that’s getting into production this year. Those come in at $1 billion apiece. When you have ships that cost these amounts, even with a gigantic budget, like $45 billion, you can't buy many of them. The second thing that's going on is the Navy is tickling the system. They're saying, ‘Oh dear, we can only afford one sub this year because we're so stretched running. And isn't that just terrible?’ So they're tickling Congress where it feels good, and they're saying, ‘okay, when you add money, add money for another submarine.’

So does that mean the budget will grow beyond what the President has asked for?

The Biden request is a floor, not a ceiling.

And the other game that goes on is they are actually limited in a relative sense in the billions of dollars that they can add on each year. So the staff on the appropriations committee and the two armed services committees, they go looking for things to cut in the accounts in the Pentagon budget where nobody's paying much attention. So they can then plow that money back into the stuff that the Navy wants for these submarines, or that Senator X, Y, or Z wants for a research and development program that just happens to be performed in his, or her, state and just happens to be from that company that gave him a healthy political contribution last year.  One of the things the staffs love to cut is training money for the Air Force and others,  because they'll declare the request to have been excessive. They’ll add that few hundred million dollars to the pot for goodies that members of Congress want. An added problem, of course, is that the Air Force is already way, way behind on trending hours for pilots, and that account needs more money, not less money. There are all kinds of other games that the staff at these committees play to pretend they're taking out unuseful money, and paying for the oh, so wonderful ideas that members of Congress want for their special requests.

Thank you. At least we’ve been warned.

(Herewith Wheeler’s breakdown of the national security budget sausage.) 

Wheeler Table For 2025 (1)

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